A03-8 Predictability of extreme weather events in Japan under changing monsoon conditions

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A03-8

Principal Investigator

SATO Tomonori

Hokkaido U.

Co-Investigators

YAMAZAKI Akira	JAMSTEC
KAMAE Youichi	U. Tsukuba
SUGIMOTO Shiori	JAMSTEC
MIYAKAWA Tomoki	U. Tokyo
TAKAYA Yuhei	Meteorological Research Institute
TAKAHASHI Hiroshi	Tokyo Metropolitan U.

Postdoctoral Researcher

Research Collaborators

HIRATA Hidetaka	Rissho U., Co-I of A01-2
KAWASE Hiroaki	Meteorological Research Institute, Co-I of A01-2
YANASE Wataru	Meteorological Research Institute, Co-I of A01-2
IMADA Yukiko	U. Tokyo, Co-I of A01-3
TOKINAGA Hiroki	Kyushu U., PI of A03-9
TERAO Toru	Kagawa U.
TAMURA Kenta	Hokkaido U.
LI Shixue	Hokkaido U.

East Asian summer and winter monsoons, driven by the continent-ocean temperature differences, promote warm moist southwesterly winds during summer and cold dry northwesterly winds during winter, creating distinct seasonality in the weather around Japan. The water vapor transported by these monsoon systems form rain and snow, supplying abundant water resources in Japan. On the other hand, extreme precipitation events can be triggered by abnormal monsoons, posing a threat to natural environment and human society.

We aim to evaluate the predictability of monsoons and extreme weather events around Japan through the advanced understanding of the air-sea interaction over oceans that have experienced rapid warming. To achieve this goal, the analysis will be conducted using observational data, including surface and satellite measurements, reanalysis, and large ensemble simulations, with focus on multi-scale structures within the atmosphere-ocean coupled systems and their linkage with the modulation of monsoons under changing climate. Furthermore, atmospheric-ocean coupled models and cloud-resolving models will be utilized to examine the predictability of extreme weathers.